What is happening in Europe and Asia in February 2025?
The month of February represents a big change, especially in Europe following the German election with the far-right party AfD’s historic gain of around 20% votes. Also in Germany, the U.S. Vice President Vance's speech at the Munich Security Conference stirred controversy among EU leaders as he talked about migration and "restrictions" on freedom of speech in the EU instead of talking about the war in Ukraine and EU security. At the same time, Europe was dumbfounded by a surprise bilateral meeting between the U.S. and Russia in Riyadh which is at risk of disregarding the Ukrainian voices.
The Trump factor is also having a significant impact on relations with Asia, especially on the issue of Taiwan. The disbandment of USAID has a significant impact on development cooperation with countries in the Global South, which brings opportunities for China to extend its soft power in the region. Trump's tariffs on several Asian countries will also accelerate this change. The Editorial Office also monitors the development of the hostage exchange between Hamas and Israel as well as the situation in Bangladesh and Uzbekistan.
Asia
Hong Kong's last major pro-democracy party to disband
[TM] Hong Kong's oldest and one of the last remaining pro-democracy parties is set to disband after a meeting on January 20, amid a tightening national security crackdown. The Democratic Party chairman, Lo Kin-hei, said the party's members still needed to vote on the dissolution, with a 75 percent majority required, to make it final at a future meeting. The Democratic Party, founded in 1994, grew into becoming the largest and most successful opposition party, being a symbol of the city's freedoms and plurality.
Under Hong Kong's "One-Country, Two Systems" framework, the city is guaranteed autonomy and freedoms while remaining under Chinese control. However, in recent years, authorities have utilised security laws to detain many pro-democracy activists and close down civil society organizations and independent media outlets. A 2021 reform of the electoral system, aimed at ensuring only pro-China "patriots" could govern Hong Kong, effectively excluded democrats from the political scene, pushing them to the margins even more. [Nikkei Asia]
The U.S.'s updated information about Taiwan's independence has reported different opinions in China and Taiwan.
[HN] The State Department of America has sparked controversy after removing the phrase "we do not support Taiwan independence" from its online fact sheet of US-Taiwan relations. The department described this change as a regular part of a standard update and reported its commitment to maintaining the "one China policy."
On the one hand, China's Foreign Ministry disagreed with the update from America and requested that they clarify their position about Taiwan or decrease US-China relations. On the other hand, Taiwan's Foreign Minister supported the website change and believed in a future robust diplomatic relationship with America. These actions warn of complicated shifts in U.S. relations with China and Taiwan, especially during the president's transition in the U.S. [CNNWorld]
Thailand and Cambodia's policemen rescued two hundred fifteen victims from a scam centre
[HN] On February 22, Thailand and Cambodia's police officers successfully infiltrated an online scam organization, rescuing 109 Thais, 50 Pakistanis, 48 Indians, five Taiwanese, and three Indonesians. Furthermore, China also reported its success in repatriating 621 workers from these scam centres during this time.
This event remarks ongoing efforts of Southeast Asia's governments to address the persistent issue of scam organizations along regional borders for many years. This security boost has been argued as the impact of the case of a Chinese actor, Wang Xing, who was arrested by a Myanmar scam centre. This improvement signals a positive indicator in solving the long-standing social issues in Southeast Asia. Additionally, this mitigation will ensure future safety for both locals and tourists. [Reuters]
Taliban’s first-ever diplomatic visit to Japan, asked to respect human rights
[TM] The Taliban delegation has arrived in Japan for the first time since it captured Kabul in 2021. On February 16, Taliban officials arrived in Japan on February 16 at the invitation of a private organisation, Sasakawa Peace Foundation. The private-sector think tank said that it has the aim to foster a broad vision for future nation-building in Afghanistan and to put pressure on the need to accept humanitarian assistance from the international community.
Toshihide Ando, director-general of the Middle Eastern and African Affairs Bureau, from the Foreign Ministry affairs, called on visiting Taliban representatives to respect human rights and democracy. Afghan women and children have been living in harsh conditions since the Islamic group took control of the country in 2021 following the withdrawal of the U.S. military. [Asahi]
Hamas hands over hostages but Israel is yet to reciprocate
[TM] Hamas released six Israeli hostages on February 22. However, Israel suspended the release of more than 600 Palestinians from its prisons. The release of 620 Palestinian prisoners was meant to occur just after six Israeli hostages were released. This is putting the five-week-old ceasefire agreement in jeopardy.
The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said that "disgraceful" ceremonies have been dishonouring their hostages and how it has been used for propaganda. Israeli authorities thus delayed the release "until the next hostage release is guaranteed." While the majority of Israelis want the release of the remaining hostages to happen, there has been hesitancy from the right-wing Netanyahu's governing coalition, who sees the advantages of resuming the war to annihilate Hamas. [The Guardian]
“Operation Devil Hunt” arrests a total of 8,664 people in Bangladesh
[TM] Following a terror attack on student protesters in Gazipur done by Awami League - Sheikh Hasina loyalists, the interim government of Bangladesh led by Muhammad Yunus began an ongoing nationwide operation on February 8. Home Adviser Lt Gen (Retd) Md Jahangir Alam Chowdhury reaffirmed the government's dedication to bringing those he labeled as "devils" to justice, declaring that the operation would persist for as long as they remain.
The latest figure on February 23 stated that there has been a total of 8,664 people arrested due to the suspected link to destabilise the country. The detainees include members of the Awami League and its affiliates. The operation has been met with criticism, with the Jatiya Party expressing concerns about a potential "suppression of dissent" and claiming that their leaders could be wrongfully accused. [Dhaka Tribune]
Uzbek Court sentences ten in attempted assassination of former official Allamjonov
[TM] On February 12, Uzbekistan’s military court announced the decision in the assassination attempt of Komil Allamjonov, a former Presidential Administration official. Allamjonov, a former senior official in Uzbekistan’s Presidential Administration, was attacked near his home in Qibray on October 26 as gunmen opened fire on his car, but he was safe. The track happened just the day before the parliamentary elections. The court sentenced ten individuals to prison.
In addition, Uzbekistan also placed two Russian citizens on an Interpol international wanted list. A potential link between Russia and power struggles in Tashkent is suspected as Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is believed to be sheltering two men. Kadyrov himself has denied any involvement in the attack, despite remarks targeting Allamjonov. [The Times of Central Asia]
Vietnam's Ministry of Foreign Affairs worried about the termination of USAID in Vietnam
[HN] After President Trump had decided to freeze USAID on February 7, a representative of Vietnam's Foreign Ministry expressed concern about the impacts of this decision on Vietnamese beneficiaries. Even though this decision can affect numerous fields, including healthcare, environment, climate change, disaster relief, and post-war legacy issues, the heaviest damage stems from the indefinite suspension of U.S. assistance intended as compensation for the Vietnam War.
The projects related to bombs and mine clearance or dioxin remediation in the past military stations were suspended. Furthermore, the suspension also reports on the U.S.'s collaboration in searching for missing U.S. service members during the Vietnam War and the support of Agent Orange-affected individuals. This gesture of President Trump poses a threat to the U.S. credibility in implementing its moral obligation to Vietnam and undermines the diplomatic relations between Vietnam and America. [VietnamNews]
Asian countries restructured their economic policies due to Trump's tariffs
[HN] The U.S. move to strengthen the tariffs has posed significant challenges for Asian countries, whose economies are export-dependent. In response to diminished U.S. market access risk, Asian nations are quickly discussing and modifying policies to minimise economic risks. However, the inevitable conclusion is that economic growth in the region will slow, and the revenue this year will be lower than in previous years.
The U.S. tariffs directly threaten Indonesia, Japan, and Malaysia. Moreover, countries including Vietnam, India, and Korea are quickly enhancing their economic policies to build stronger international relations with America and decrease the impact of the new tariffs. Most importantly, the yearslong trade war between the United States and China also substantially affected Southeast Asian countries. [Economic Times]
Europe
U.S. and Russia hold surprise bilateral meeting in Riyadh
[BD] European and Ukrainian officials were blindsided by a surprise bilateral meeting between the United States and Russia in Riyadh on 18 February, covering a wide range of topics including a possible Ukraine peace agreement. Led by US foreign minister Marco Rubio and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, the two delegations discussed a potential normalization of diplomatic relations, and opportunities for economic cooperation and established high-level teams tasked with negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine.
Leaders in both the EU and Ukraine were dumbfounded by the Trump administration’s decision to launch preliminary peace talks, stating that no agreement could be reached without Ukrainian participation. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy asserted that his country would not accept any outcomes from the talks. [Associated Press]
Christian Democrats win German elections amid strong far-right showing
[BD] The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), together with its Bavarian sister party Christian Social Union (CSU), won the German federal election on 23 February by gaining 28.5% of votes according to preliminary projections, faring slightly worse than previously anticipated. Meanwhile, the German far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party reached the best result in party history, coming in second with 20,6%.
The snap elections became necessary after the country’s previous government, the so-called “traffic light coalition” consisting of Social Democrats (SPD), Greens, and Liberals (FDP), fell in November 2024 after a myriad of squabbles concerning the federal budget and ideological differences. While the campaign was initially dominated by Germany’s flailing economy, a series of terrorist attacks committed by migrants led to migration being the overarching topic in the days before the vote.
The election’s biggest losers were the Social Democrats and Liberals, who were down 9,2% and 7% respectively compared to the last vote in 2021. The FDP and Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), a new left-wing populist party founded in 2023, failed to reach the 5% threshold, winning 4,33% and 4,97%, respectively. Currently, a “Grand Coalition” between CDU/CSU and SPD seems most likely, as the CDU has categorically ruled out any form of coalition with the AfD. [Tagesschau]
Baltic states exit BRELL energy grid
[BD] The Baltic countries - Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania - disconnected from the BRELL energy grid on 8 February 2025, which had connected their energy systems with those of Belarus and Russia. The three countries connected their electric power transmission infrastructure to the Continental European Synchronous Area (CESA) on 9 February, which encompasses most of the other 24 EU states.
Having been launched in 2007, the process of relinquishing the Russian IPS/UPS transmission system was accelerated by the outbreak of the Ukraine war in 2022. The transition is seen as an important step for the Baltics to ensure their energy security. [Deutsche Welle]
JD Vance's speech signals a deep rift in Transatlantic relations
[BD] U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference (MSC), in which he accused Europe of failing to uphold free speech and democratic values, caused a stir among EU leaders and officials.
While most attendees expected Vance to talk about the war in Ukraine and EU security, the U. S. Vice President instead stated that the EU’s main problems are internal, naming migration and “restrictions” on freedom of speech as two prime examples.
Vance’s speech was met with fierce criticism by several European leaders and politicians, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and opposition leader Friedrich Merz, who lamented Vance’s open support for German far-right party AfD. [Foreign Policy]
EU leaders hold first-ever Defense summit
[BD] European Union leaders held their first-ever dedicated defense summit in Brussels on 3 February, aiming to strengthen Europe’s security posture amid growing geopolitical tensions. The retreat focused on bolstering the EU’s defense capabilities, reducing reliance on external powers, and improving military coordination among member states. Discussions were heavily influenced by the ongoing war in Ukraine, security concerns regarding Russia, and the need for greater European autonomy in defense matters.
Key topics included increasing joint military spending, streamlining defense procurement, and enhancing rapid response capabilities. Leaders debated proposals for a new EU defense fund and measures to improve military mobility across Europe. Some member states, particularly France and Germany, pushed for deeper integration of defense policies, while others, such as Poland and the Baltic states, emphasised maintaining strong ties with NATO rather than creating independent EU military structures. [Reuters]
Estonia suggests seizing frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine
On February 23, Estonian [BD] Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna presented a plan on how to use frozen Russian assets in order to support Ukraine.
Amounting to roughly €210 billion, Tsahkna stated that the EU should push forward and use the entirety of Russian frozen assets instead of just their windfall profits. While several EU countries, such as Germany, France, and Belgium, cautiously criticised the idea due to potential legal issues, Estonia rebutted by stating that Russia’s refusal to pay reparations justified the measure. [Reuters]
Contributors:
TM: Muhammad Anugrah Utama (Tama)
HN: Kim Khánh Hà (Hanna)
AR: Arshia S. Tabatabaee
BD: Benedikt Stöckl
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