The U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025 has exacerbated far-right politics in Europe and potentially complicated relations with Asia and even its traditional ally, Europe. In the January 2025 edition, we also observe China’s AI race with the U.S., Musk’s meddling in German domestic politics, and Southeast Asia’s ‘hedging’ in the US-China rivalry. The editorial office also observes the protests in Slovakia against Fico’s warming up to Russia and LGBTQ+ couples marriages in Thailand. January seems to depict a mixed picture of global order: How will the recently inaugurated Trump administration and the World shape (or react) to the changing geopolitical context?
Asia
Indonesia joins the BRICS Plus, becoming the first Southeast Asian Nation to do so
[TM] Indonesia has joined BRICS as a full member based on Brazil's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announcement on Monday, January 6. On the same day, Beijing warmly welcomed Indonesia on becoming a BRICS member only three months after it applied after the new President Prabowo’s inauguration. Besides Indonesia, other ASEAN countries such as Thailand and Malaysia have expressed interest in joining BRICS.
Amidst domestic backlash, Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono during the World Economic Forum in Davos defended the decision by saying that Indonesia’s intention was to “bridge the differences” between developed and developing world while not denying the intention to yield economic benefits. [Government of Brazil]
The Philippines maintains the provisional deal to resupply its outpost at the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea
[HN] On 16th January 2025, the Philippines successfully resupplied a remote outpost at the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea without encountering any interference from Chinese forces. This event remarks the third consecutive peaceful resupply operation since both nations agreed in July 2024 to avoid confrontations in the disputed area. The agreement allowed the Philippines to deliver supplies without inspection. The shoal – Bajo de Masinloc in the Philippines has been a longstanding flashpoint in the region. The recent successful resupply missions are a positive step towards decreasing tensions and managing disputes in the South China Sea.
Analysts view this agreement as a commitment by both states to uphold the status quo while also urging the Philippines to remain their position in its South China Sea stance. According to Julio Amador, the Foundation for the National Interest’s interim president and a trustee at the non-profit organization Fact Asia, the agreement was counted as one of the advantages of the Philippines in the South China Sea conflict between the Philippines and China. [APNews]
The legislation for same-marriage rights has been approved in Thailand, and hundreds of LGBTQIA+ couples eagerly register for marriage
[HN] After being the first Southeast Asian country to recognise same-sex marriage, hundreds of same-sex couples in Thailand held wedding ceremonies. Under the law approved by Thailand's parliament and the king last year, same-sex couples are entitled to register their marriage with full legal, financial, and medical rights and the right to adopt children and inherit property. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra emphasised that this law reflects Thailand's growing awareness of gender diversity and equality, regardless of sexual orientation, race or religion. Moreover, the social activists considered this law a significant step forward and hoped that Thailand would serve as a global model for marriage equality.
In Bangkok, at least 200 couples registered their marriage at the Siam Paragon shopping mall in an event organised by Bangkok Pride in collaboration with local authorities. The event included same-sex couples of all ages and professions, including a police officer in uniform with his partner. Celebrations also took place in other regions of Thailand, from the coastal city of Pattaya to the mountainous city of Chiang Mai. [RNZNews]
China’s DeepSeek shakes the U.S. artificial intelligence boom
[TM] DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, has dethroned OpenAI's ChatGPT as the most downloaded free app on Apple's App Store. The $6m product raises doubts about the sustainability of the Western artificial intelligence boom. Investors turned against global tech stocks on January 27, punishing Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet. Nvidia's fall - which is about $465 billion off its value, was the biggest in U.S. stock market history.
DeepSeek claims to have used fewer chips than its rivals to develop its model, making it more competitive compared to the multibillion-dollar AI spending spree by US companies. President Trump has been known to invest heavily in AI to maintain U.S. competitiveness. [The Guardian, The Economic Times]
A Chinese mining worker was killed in attack in Afghanistan
A Chinese man working for a mining company in Takhar, Afghanistan, was killed while going to the Dasht-e-Qala district. Taliban reported that this man had not notified the local security officials about his travel, which was essential for ensuring safety in the area.
The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the attack by targeting the vehicle carrying the Chinese citizen. The incident highlights ongoing security challenges in Afghanistan and the risks faced by foreign nationals working in this country since the Taliban's return to government power. China's foreign ministry said that it was "deeply shocked" by the attack and had demanded the Afghan side to severely punish the perpetrators. [Anadolu Ajansı]
South Korea will overhaul airport structures at 7 airports after the Jeju Air crash
[HN] At the end of December 2024, South Korea reported a crash of a Boeing 737-800 departed from Bangkok, Thailand to Muan Airport by Jeju Air. This crash became one of the biggest aviation accidents in South Korea in 2024. According to the reports, out of the 181 individuals onboard, 179 tragically perished, including passengers ranging in age from 3 to 78, with no survivors among the flight's passengers. After a month of investigation, the ministry decided to remove concrete barriers near runways at 7 airports.
According to the South Korean Ministry of Transportation, the concrete barriers housed a navigation system designed to assist aircraft during landing and had been implemented at numerous international airports. However, after the negative impact of the concrete barriers to the fatal crash, South Korea’s government approved alternative new materials with lighter and more fragile structures or considered burying these barriers underground to enhance aviation safety. Additionally, South Korea also changed the runways safety areas at 7 airports after the finding revealed that the actual distances were approximately 40 meters shorter than the recommended. [BBCNews]
India police arrests forty-four men for sexual violence against a girl for over 5 years
On January 14th in the southern state of Kerala, India, police officers arrested 44 men accused of repeatedly raping an 18-year-old girl over 5 years. The victim reported that the abuse began when she was 13 years old and continued until she was 18 years old, including multiple accomplices.
After the investigation, authorities were committed to ensure the victim's justice. The police in Kerala remarked on their dedication to pursuing such cases diligently and have urged other victims to come forward, assuring them of full support and protection. This case has spread outrage and discussion about the safety of women and children in India, highlighting the issue of sexual violence in this country and the necessity of individuals' protection from sexual violence. [Reuters]
British Chagos Island Deal drowned by Mauritius and Trump
[AR] Following the election of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, a top agenda has been the issue of the British Indian Ocean Territories, with the handing over of the Chagos Islands from the United Kingdom to Mauritius as per the International Court of Justice’s 2019 ruling that Britain’s control over the island was illegal. Although various previous British governments had gone back and forth regarding whether or not they would comply with this ruling, Starmer’s government pledged to follow up on this by giving control of the Chagos Islands to the nearby African country Mauritius which claims sovereignty over the land.
Although negotiations were initially fruitful, and both sides landed on an agreement where Britain and America would have a 99-year lease on a military base on the island, in exchange for financial compensation to the Mauritius government, the resignation of the Mauritius Prime Minister Jugnauth, and the appointment of new leader Prime Minister Ramgoolam put pressure as the new government expected a lesser lease of 50 years, as well as greater financial compensation. Although the British government soon acquiesced, Trump’s election victory in America has since caused negotiations to break down until the incoming Trump administration reviews the deal, with fears that Mauritius’ partnership with China may pose a geopolitical risk to the British and American governments. [Euronews]
Europe
Gas exports from Russia via Ukraine halted as transit agreement expires
[BD] Energy exports from Russia via Ukraine were halted on 1 January 2025 following the expiration of the transit agreement between the two countries. The prior transit agreement, which had been negotiated back in 2019, ensured the transport for Russian energy sources via Ukrainian territory and remained intact even after the outbreak of the ongoing war. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy had hinted in recent months that his country would not extend the agreement.
The agreement’s expiration has led to a government crisis and numerous protests in Slovakia, which was one of the last remaining customers for Russian gas in Europe. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has called Zelenskyy’s decision to not prolong the agreement “sabotage,” while threatening to cut social benefits for Ukrainian refugees residing in the country. Protestors have accused Fico of using the gas crisis as a smoke screen to cover up government corruption and deflect from domestic issues.
In Moldova, which relied on Russian gas exports for a significant amount of its electricity supply, the halt of Russian gas exports led to a full-fledged humanitarian crisis, with the breakaway region of Transnistria being cut off from its sole source of energy. Despite a large-scale industrial shutdown due to insufficient energy resources, the Transnistrian government initially refused to accept humanitarian aid and gas from the EU and Moldova, stating that Russia would step into the breach by providing humanitarian energy supplies. However, Transnistria’s president Vadim Krasnoselsky later gave in and asked Moldova to supply gas. [BBC, Politico]
Belarus holds presidential elections as international isolation mounts
[BD] Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko stated that he does not care whether the EU recognises the outcome of the country’s first presidential elections since the tumultuous vote in 2020, which saw wide-scale protests and accusations of fraud. The EU parliament had previously adopted a resolution, urging the international community not to recognise the election results. Lukashenko is widely seen as the predetermined winner of the vote on 26 January as the country’s opposition continues to suffer under severe political repression.
Of the four candidates running against Lukashenko, three are members of pro-government parties, while the fourth candidate Hanna Kanapatskaya has expressed cautious criticism regarding Lukashenko’s reign, calling herself “the only democratic alternative” in the race. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who finished second in the 2020 elections and has since been the de-facto leader of the Belarusian opposition, called the elections a “farce” and “Lukashenko ritual”. Despite a series of clemencies last year, more than 1,200 political prisoners remain behind bars in the country. [Deutsche Welle]
Knife attack in Germany raises stakes in upcoming elections
[BD] A 28-year-old Afghan citizen attacked and killed two people, including a toddler, in the Bavarian city of Aschaffenburg on 22 January. Opposition leader Friedrich Merz from the Christian Democratic Party subsequently announced that his party would tighten migration measures and border controls if it comes to power following next month’s general elections. Centre-left and left-wing parties have criticised Merz for not ruling out relying on support from the far-right Alternative für Deutschland in order to push through its migration agenda.
The knife attack is the latest in a slew of terrorist attacks committed in Germany: Last December, a 50-year-old Saudi-Arabian man drove a truck into a Christmas market in the city of Magdeburg, while a 26-year-old Syrian had previously stabbed several people during a city festival in Solingen. The attacks had led German authorities to clamp down on illegal migration by reintroducing temporary border controls. [Euronews]
Denmark and US at loggerheads as Trump eyes Greenland
[BD] Tensions flared between Denmark and the US as President Donald Trump continues to make claims on the overseas territory of Greenland. During a phone call with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Trump firmly reiterated his desire to purchase the self-governing country, threatening economic retribution in case Denmark refused.
The territory owes its desirability in large part to its rich deposits of critical raw materials, which are crucial for the transition towards electric vehicles as well as the ramp-up of renewable energy sources. Oil drilling is also set to become more popular due to the melting of its ice sheets. Trump has so far refused to rule out the use of military force to gain control of the island. [The Guardian]
Elon Musk interferes in German election campaign
[BD] American billionaire and Tesla founder Elon Musk stirred up commotion in Germany by openly proclaiming his support for the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which is currently polling in second place behind the Christian Democrats.
After penning a guest column in German newspaper the Die Welt in December last year, stating the party was the country’s “last spark of hope”, the South African followed up with an interview with AfD main candidate Alice Weidel on his platform X, where the two discussed German bureaucracy and energy policy, among other things, with Weidel raising eyebrows by claiming that Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler was, in fact, a communist.
Musk’s interference in European affairs has been sharply criticised by national officials, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz calling Musk a “fool” and French President Emmanuel Macron accusing him of fueling an “international reactionary movement”. [Deutsche Welle]
Survivors commemorate 80th anniversary of Auschwitz liberation
[BD] Remaining survivors of the Nazi concentration camp Auschwitz celebrated the 80th anniversary of its liberation by Red Army forces in 1945 on 27 January. Around 50 former inmates of the camp and several politicians, including the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, were in attendance. Survivors lamented the fact that far-right views seem to be resurging across Europe and laid flowers at the camp’s Death Wall.
The camp, which had been established on occupied Polish territory and where an estimated 1.1 million people perished from 1940 until its liberation, was the largest of 23 main concentration camps the Nazis had built to systematically exterminate Jews. [Reuters]
Contributors:
TM: Muhammad Anugrah Utama (Tama)
HN: Kim Khánh Hà (Hanna)
AR: Arshia S. Tabatabaee
BD: Benedikt Stöckl
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