What is happening in Europe and Asia in March 2025?

What is happening in Europe and Asia in March 2025?

March has seen several notable developments in European and Asian affairs as both continents continue to grapple with the new Trump administration in Washington. In this month’s edition, we observe the EU and Germany’s plans to increase defence spending amidst growing American scepticism of European security policy. We also observe the implications of the East Asian trilateral foreign ministers’ meeting and how China may undermine Washington’s long-standing policy in the region, as well as the controversial Uyghur deportations from Thailand back to Xinjiang this month. 

The Editorial Office also observes the arrests of a Turkish opposition leader on alleged corruption charges and a former Philippine president for alleged crimes against humanity. We also monitor the breakdown of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, the protests in Slovakia and Indonesia, the Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan border deal, and the ongoing Balochistan crisis. 

March seems to illustrate a global landscape complicated by both historic challenges and the return of a reinvigorated Trump presidency, with European and Asian powerhouses flexing their muscles in the absence of an internationalist Washington. 

Asia

China-Japan-South Korea discuss to boost cooperation at "turning point in history"

[TM] The foreign ministers of Japan, South Korea, and China, have agreed on common grounds on East Asian security and economic issues amidst global uncertainty during their trilateral foreign ministers' meeting in Tokyo, Japan, on March 22. An earlier trilateral meeting was held in South Korea last year.

The first gathering since 2023 takes place in the context of United States President Donald Trump's move to upset decades-old alliances with South Korea and China. This potentially opens the door for China to forge closer ties to countries in the region traditionally aligned with Washington. In the meeting, the three pledged "mutual understanding" between populations. The meeting addressed concerns over North Korea's weapons tests and its deployment of troops to support Russia's war against Ukraine. [Al Jazeera]

Duterte, Ex-Philippine President, arrested by ICC over drug war

[TM]  Rodrigo Duterte was arrested at Manila airport on March 11 and was on a chartered jet that flew via Dubai to The Hague, where he would be facing charges of crimes against humanity over his deadly "war on drugs." Leading the Philippines from 2016 to 2022, Duterte conducted the violent "war on drugs" campaign which led to the extrajudicial killings of small-time drug dealers, users, and others.

Meanwhile, the former president's supporters, carrying the Philippine flag, gathered outside of The Hague Penitentiary Institution protesting his arrest. Duterte's main political rival, current President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, was an important figure in Duterte's arrest. Previously, the House of Representatives approved the measure to impeach his daughter, who was the vice president of the Philippines, Sara Duterte, over a plot to assassinate the president, large-scale corruption, and failure to denounce China in the South China Sea. [BBC, CNN World]

Thai Cabinet Ministers to visit Xinjiang following backlash on Uyghur’s deportation

[TM] Cabinet ministers from Thailand were en route to the Xinjiang region of China on March 18 to meet some of the Uyghur detainees who were deported at the end of February. However, the government said that only five out of the 40 sent back will be made available. 

The Thai authorities secretly sent back the 40 Uyghurs on February 27, which was met with criticisms from Human Rights Watch and Western countries, including the United States, which hit Thai officials with visa sanctions. The European Parliament also called the EU to use the ongoing free trade negotiations to prevent a repeat. [Bangkok Post]

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan sign deal to end long-running border dispute

[TM] The presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan signed a deal on March 13, which will end a long-running border conflict. The two countries clashed over the border near Batken, a Kyrgyz town, in 2021 and 2022, which resulted in a six-day conflict in September 2022. The two Central Asian countries have been quietly working to resolve a bloody 1,000-kilometer border dispute.

Disputes over the border date from Soviet times, when Moscow drew up borders in ethnically mixed parts of Central Asia, back then when the two entities were controlled by Moscow. [Reuters, Radio Free Europe]

Balochistan crisis worsens after train attack in Pakistan

[HN] On March 11, Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) fighters ambushed a train with around 500 passengers travelling from Quetta to northern Peshawar. An unconfirmed source said that the BLA claimed to have killed 6 security personnel and hijacked the train.

Although trains passing through Balochistan carry security personnel to prevent deadly attacks by the BLA, this attack has proved the ineffectiveness of this government policy. Moreover, the intensification of attacks by the BLA is a signal that the Pakistani government needs to strengthen preventive measures besides addressing allegations of discrimination and exploitation of the Baloch people. [CBSNews] 

The attack on the Gaza Strip in mid-March broke the fragile ceasefire agreement between Palestine and Israel

[HN] Israel broke the terms of the ceasefire that went into effect in January by launching an offensive across the Gaza Strip early on Tuesday, March 18. According to the Palestinian Health Ministry, there have been at least 404 deaths and 562 injuries, and many more are still being looked for under the debris.

On the Palestinian side, Hamas denounced Israel's attack as a unilateral cancellation of the ceasefire, a view that was also backed by the armed group Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). Moreover, the Israeli military also publicly denounced the attack's immorality and claimed it was a planned genocide.

On the Israel side, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clarified that the attack was prompted by Hamas authorities' refusal to extend the ceasefire and their non-cooperation in releasing hostages taken from Israel. The Israeli government also stated that Israel had consulted the White House and received its support for these military measures. [Aljazeera] 

The Indonesian legislature has approved the controversial amendments to the Armed Forces Regulations.

[HN] Despite strong opposition from hundreds of students and human rights activists, the Indonesian parliament formally passed amendments to the law permitting military officers to hold civilian positions on March 20, 2025. Those who oppose this policy criticize military participation for possibly resulting in abuses of power and violations of human rights. They also voice concern that this law ignores the current problems with military consolidation facing Indonesia’s armed forces.

Following the bill’s passage, student organizations also started protests outside Jakarta’s parliamentary building, burning tyres, and holding banners that read “New Order Strikes Back.” Thus, Indonesian authorities had to reinforce police forces to compel the protesting groups to leave the building. [Reuters] 

Europe

Alleged corruption charges as opposition voices in Turkish election arrested 

[AR] On March 14, Istanbul Mayor and leading CHP candidate for the Turkish Presidential Elections, Ekrem Imamoglu was arrested by Turkish police alleging counts of corruption and terror links with Kurdish rebel groups in Turkey. The day prior, Imamoglu had his diploma revoked by Istanbul University, with academic qualification a necessity to run for Presidential Elections in Turkey.

With many cynics of the charges Imamoglu is being faced with, voices in Turkey have voiced concerns of corruption and political malpractice. Imamoglu has been the front face of the opposition CHP party, with approval ratings suggesting that he could win against the incumbent Erdogan’s AK Party at the next Presidential Election.

Turkey is currently ongoing the largest set of political protests since the 2013 protests over a decade ago. Several cities, including Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir, have put bans and limitations on public protest, however, unsatisfied voters have nonetheless gone out on the streets across all large Turkish cities. [DW News]

EU leaders agree on large-scale defense spending 

[BD] The leaders of the EU-27 agreed to significantly ramp up defense spending during the European Council summit on 20 March, promising to mobilize up to €800 billion in funds over the coming 4 years. 

The EU leaders’ decision to support increased defense spending comes after US President Donald Trump has repeatedly put into question his country’s commitment to protecting European NATO members. EU members were also taken aback by Trump’s rapprochement with Russia, leading to calls for greater military autonomy within the bloc. 

The EU Commission had previously unveiled its “ReArm Europe” action plan, which aims to enhance the EU’s military capabilities, in the run-up to an extraordinary EU Council summit on 6 March. The plan suggests taking on EU bonds to the tune of €150 billion in order to finance rearmament, while also granting defense expenditures an exemption from the bloc’s rigid debt rules. 

Besides military spending, the summit also covered the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the bloc’s economic competitiveness, and migration. However, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban blocked any joint statements in support of Ukraine, voicing his support for US President Trump’s peace initiative. [Politico]

Hungary bans gay pride parades  

[BD] The Hungarian parliament passed a law banning pride parades by the LGBTQ+ community on 19 March after the bill was fast-tracked by the country’s ruling Fidesz (PfE) party.

The party justified the ban by alleging that the event is harmful for children, with Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban stating that “we won’t let woke ideology endanger our kids”.

The ban is part of a wider crackdown on LGBT+ rights by the conservative Fidesz party, which has been in power since 2010. The country had previously abolished its recognition of transgender people in 2020 and outlawed the depiction of homosexuality to minors a year later. [BBC]

Large-scale protests put pressure on Slovakian PM Robert Fico 

[BD] Protesters in Slovakia have called for the resignation of the current government over the past three months, criticizing Fico and his SMER party for pandering to Russia and threatening Slovakia’s future in the EU and NATO. 

The protests began after Fico met up with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow in late December, marking one of the few times an EU leader had personally encountered Putin following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Protesters were also alarmed by Fico’s recurring threats of leaving the EU and NATO 

Fico has been in office for the second time after winning the country’s 2023 parliamentary elections. His previous term had come to an abrupt end in 2018 after allegations surfaced that he was involved in the murder of investigative journalist Ján Kuciak, who had been looking into government corruption, and his wife Martina Kušnírová. [Euronews]

Formation of a centrist coalition in Austria staves off far-right 

[BD] The liberal NEOS party agreed to join the conservative ÖVP (EPP) and the social democrat SPÖ (S&D) in a three-way coalition on 2 March. Previously, the far-right FPÖ (PfE), which had won last September’s parliamentary elections, had failed to form a governing coalition of its own.

The coalition marks the first time that NEOS, which was founded in 2012, forms part of the Austrian government. 94% of the roughly 2000 members that convened in Vienna greenlighted the proposed coalition agreement. 

Despite winning the parliamentary elections with 29% of all votes, the FPÖ was unable to entice other parties to form a coalition government. Negotiations with the ÖVP had proven fruitless following squabbles over the distribution of posts within a potential coalition. [Deutsche Welle]

Germany greenlights massive spending package in landmark decision 

[BD] The German parliament and senate greenlighted the spending plans and constitutional changes proposed by the earmarked coalition of CDU/CSU (EPP) and SPD (S&D), which foresee massive investments into infrastructure and defense while also granting defense spending an exemption from the country’s debt brake. 

The financial package, which would lead the normally very frugal country to take on large amounts of new debt, was seen as necessary after US President Donald Trump thawed relations with Russia and put his country’s dedication to defending its NATO allies in doubt. The package foresees an exemption for expenditures on defense, civilian protection, secret services, and cybersecurity exceeding 1% of national GDP from the debt brake, while also creating a €500 billion special fund for infrastructure investments. 

The parliamentary vote on the spending package and the corresponding constitutional changes had stirred significant controversy due to the parliament still being in its composition from before last month’s elections. This was necessary as the far-left Linke (Left) and far-right AfD (ESN), who both oppose the package under different pretexts, will dispose of a blocking minority of ⅓ of MPs in the upcoming parliamentary term. 

CDU/CSU and SPD also needed to make far-going concessions to the Green party (EU-Greens), whose support was critical in garnering the necessary ⅔ of MPs to alter the country’s constitution. These concessions included the allocation of €100 billion of the special fund towards the country’s green transition and enshrining the goal of net-zero emissions by 2045 in the constitution. [Reuters]

Contributors:

TM: Muhammad Anugrah Utama (Tama)

HN: Kim Khánh Hà (Hanna)

AR: Arshia S. Tabatabaee

BD: Benedikt Stöckl